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Publications

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Books

Bajada, C., Melatos, Karlan & Morduch 2017, Principles of Economics (1st edition), McGraw-Hill, Australia.

Chapters

Bajada, C. 2017, 'Money Laundering Activities in Australia – An examination of the push and pull factors driving money flows.' in Rowley, C. & Rama, M. (eds), The Changing Face of Corruption in the Asia Pacific, Elsevier, UK.

Bajada, C. 2017, 'Money Laundering Activities in Australia – An examination of the push and pull factors driving money flows.' in Rowley, C. & dela Rama, M. (eds), The Growing Face of Corruption in the Asia Pacific, Elsevier.

Journal articles

Buckley, N., Mestelman, S., Muller, A., Schott, S. & Zhang, J. 2017, 'The Effects of Communication on the Partnership Solution to the Commons', Environmental and Resource Economics.
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Cason, T., Sheremeta, R. & Zhang, J. 2017, 'Asymmetric and Endogenous Communication in Competition Between Groups', Experimental Economics.
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Chan, J.C.C. 2017, 'Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility', Econometric Reviews, pp. 1-17.
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2016 Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLCWe propose an easy technique to test for time-variation in coefficients and volatilities. Specifically, by using a noncentered parameterization for state space models, we develop a method to directly calculate the relevant Bayes factor using the Savage–Dickey density ratio—thus avoiding the computation of the marginal likelihood altogether. The proposed methodology is illustrated via two empirical applications. In the first application, we test for time-variation in the volatility of inflation in the G7 countries. The second application investigates if there is substantial time-variation in the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in the United States.

Chiarella, C. & Di Guilmi, C. 2017, 'Monetary Policy and Debt Deflation: Some Computational Experiments', Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 214-242.
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 The paper presents an agent-based model to study the possible effects of different fiscal and monetary policies in the context of debt deflation. We introduce a modified Taylor rule that includes the financial position of firms as a target. Monte Carlo simulations provide a representation of the complex feedback effects generated by the interaction among the different transmission channels of monetary policy. The model also reproduces the evidence of low inflation during stock market booms and shows how it can lead to overinvestment and destabilize the system. The paper also investigates the possible reasons behind this stylized fact by testing different behavioral rules for the central bank. We find that, in a context of sticky prices and volatile expectations, endogenous credit creation can be identified as the main source of the divergent dynamics of prices in the real and financial sectors.

Fiebig, D.G. & Johar, M. 2017, 'Forecasting with Micro Panels: The Case of Health Care Costs', JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 1-15.
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Micro panels characterized by large numbers of individuals observed over a short time period provide a rich source of information, but as yet there is only limited experience in using such data for forecasting. Existing simulation evidence supports the use of a fixed-effects approach when forecasting but it is not based on a truly micro panel set-up. In this study, we exploit the linkage of a representative survey of more than 250,000 Australians aged 45 and over to 4 years of hospital, medical and pharmaceutical records. The availability of panel health cost data allows the use of predictors based on fixed-effects estimates designed to guard against possible omitted variable biases associated with unobservable individual specific effects. We demonstrate the preference towards fixed-effects-based predictors is unlikely to hold in many practical situations, including our models of health care costs. Simulation evidence with a micro panel set-up adds support and additional insights to the results obtained in the application. These results are supportive of the use of the ordinary least squares predictor in a wide range of circumstances

Fisher, J.C.D. & Wooders, J. 2017, 'Interacting information cascades: on the movement of conventions between groups', Economic Theory, vol. 63, no. 1, pp. 211-231.
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© 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. When a decision maker is a member of multiple social groups, her actions may cause information to “spill over” from one group to another. We study the nature of these spillovers in an observational learning game where two groups interact via a common player, and where conventions emerge when players follow the decisions of the members of their own groups rather than their own private information. We show that: (i) if a convention develops in one group but not the other group, then the convention spills over via the common player; (ii) when conventions disagree, then the common player’s decision breaks the convention in one group; and (iii) when no convention has developed, then the common player’s decision triggers the same convention in both groups. We also show that information spillovers may reduce welfare, and we investigate the surplus-maximizing timing of spillovers.

Grant, A.L. & Chan, J.C.C. 2017, 'A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend-Cycle Decompositions of Output', Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 49, no. 2-3, pp. 525-552.
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Grant, A.L. & Chan, J.C.C. 2017, 'Reconciling output gaps: Unobserved components model and Hodrick–Prescott filter', Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 75, pp. 114-121.
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Gu, M.Z. & Johar, M. 2017, 'Profiling hospital utilisation in a mixed public-private system', Applied Economics, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 361-375.
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Henckel, T., Menzies, G.D., Moffatt, P.G. & Zizzo, D.J. 2017, 'Sticky Belief Adjustment: A Double Hurdle Model and Experimental Evidence'.

Johar, M., Maruyama, S. & Truong, J. 2017, 'The contribution of Western fast food to fast-growing body mass in China', Applied Economics, vol. 49, no. 8, pp. 797-811.
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The westernization of Asian countries has led to the rapid expansion of Western-style fast-food restaurants, which are believed to be fueling an unprecedented rise in body mass in these countries. This study tests this belief using longitudinal data from China. Exploiting the opening of a Western-style fast-food restaurant in a particular community, we conduct a transition analysis to make a more convincing causal interpretation than the standard cross-sectional or fixed-effects approach. Considering several measures of fatness, we find no robust evidence of Western fast food having a substantial effect overall, but there is some indication of effect heterogeneity.

Johar, M., Mu, C., van Gool, K. & Wong, C.Y. 2017, 'Bleeding hearts, profiteers, or both specialist physician fees in an unregulated market', Health Economics, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 528-535.
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Maruyama, S. & Johar, M. 2017, 'Do Siblings Free-Ride in 'being There' for Parents?', Quantitative Economics, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 277-316.
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There is a potential free-rider problem when several siblings consider future provision of care for their elderly parents. Siblings can commit to not providing long-term support by living far away. If location decisions are made by birth order, older siblings may enjoy a Örstmover advantage. We study siblingsílocation decisions relative to their parents by estimating a sequential participation game for US data. We Önd: (1) limited strategic behavior: in two-child families, more than 92% of children have a dominant strategy; and (2) a non-negligible public good problem: in families with multiple children, 18.3% more parents would have had at least one child living nearby had location decisions been made cooperatively

Mendolia, S. & Siminski, P. 2017, 'Is education the mechanism through which family background affects economic outcomes? A generalised approach to mediation analysis', Economics of Education Review, vol. 59, pp. 1-12.
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Moreno, D. & Wooders, J. 2017, 'Reserve prices in auctions with entry when the seller is risk-averse', Economics Letters, vol. 154, pp. 6-9.
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Rosato, A. 2017, 'Sequential negotiations with loss-averse buyers', European Economic Review, vol. 91, pp. 290-304.
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Suzuki, T. 2017, 'Directives, expressives, and motivation', Theoretical Economics, vol. 12, no. 1.
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When an agent's motivation is sensitive to how his supervisor thinks about the agent's competence, the supervisor has to take into account both informational and expressive contents of her message to the agent. This paper shows that the supervisor can credibly express her trust in the agent's ability only by being unclear about what to do. Suggesting what to do, i.e., "directives," could reveal the supervisor's "distrust" and reduce the agent's equilibrium effort level even though it provides useful information about the decision environment. There is also an equilibrium in which directives are neutral in expressive content. However, it is shown that neologism proofness favors equilibria in which directives are double-edged swords.

Tse, H.P. 2017, 'Getting the basics right: Factors shaping student performance in intermediate economics', Economic Analysis and Policy, vol. 53, no. March 2017, pp. 1-8.
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This article examines the determinants of student performance in a second-year undergraduate economics course at a major Australian university - the University of Technology, Sydney. This article contributes to the literature by focusing on economics teaching in second-year, which is an area that has received little scholarly interest. The ultimately providing a usable sample group of 122 students. Out of a wide range of variables, two strong determinants of performance emerged: namely, students' pre-course aptitude and hours spent in paid employment. Based on these findings suggestions for increasing student performance in second-year economics are provided.

Van Essen, M. & Wooders, J. 2017, 'Dissolving a Partnership Securely'.

Conferences

Stavrunova, O., Johar, M. & Popovski, D. 2016, 'Weather Disasters and Mental Health: The Case of Damage to Housing', European Conference on Health Economics [ECHE], Hamburg.

Stavrunova, O., Johar, M. & Popovski, D. 2017, 'Weather Disasters and Mental Health: The Case of Damage to Housing', 8th Workshop on Economics of Health and Wellbeing, Melbourne.

Other

Maruyama, S. & Johar, M. 2017, 'Do siblings free-ride in “being there” for parents?', pp. 277-316.
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Copyright © 2017 The Authors. There is a potential free-rider problem when several siblings consider future provision of care for their elderly parents. Siblings can commit to not providing long-term support by living far away. If location decisions are made by birth order, older siblings may enjoy a first-mover advantage. We study siblings' location decisions relative to their parents by estimating a sequential participation game for U.S. data. We find (i) limited strategic behavior, that is, in two-child families, more than 92% of children have a dominant strategy, and (ii) a nonnegligible public good problem, that is, in families with multiple children, 18.3% more parents would have had at least one child living nearby had location decisions been made cooperatively.