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Dr Steve Mohr

Steve Mohr

Senior Research Consultant, Institute for Sustainable Futures

Bachelors of Maths, B Eng (Chem), Doctor of Philosophy

Email: Steve.Mohr@uts.edu.au
Phone: +61 2 9514 9041
Fax: +61 2 9514 4941
Room: CB10.11 (map)
Mailing address: PO Box 123, Broadway NSW 2007, Australia

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Biography

Steve’s focus is peak modelling of strategic resources. He completed a mathematics and chemical engineering degree at the University of Newcastle. During this time Steve became passionate about resource modelling and in particular the issue of peak oil. He decided to pursue the issue of resource scarcity by critically determining the likely future of fossil fuel production in the world. Steve developed a model capable of replicating production of resources extracted from mining methods and oil and gas from fields as part of his PhD research at the University of Newcastle. He applied this model to all countries and fossil fuel types in the world in order to project fossil fuel production for the world.

Before joining the Institute, Steve worked for Prof. Geoffrey Evans at the University of Newcastle investigating future phosphorus production for the world by country, drawing upon the resource model developed during the course of his PhD research. Steve also worked with Dr Gavin Mudd at Monash University as part of the Peak Minerals Cluster investigating world lithium supply and demand, as well as gold and nickel production in the Goldfield Esperance region of Western Australia.

Steve has developed the GeRS-DeMo - or Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model that estimates the demand, production (from mines or fields) and recycling of any geologic resource. Specifically, it can be used to predict the historic and future production, amount of recycling and demand of a metal, fossil fuel, or mineral.

Publications

Project reports

Cordell, D.J., Jackson, M.L., Boronyak, L.J., Cooper, C., Mohr, S.H., Moore, D.D. & White, S. 2012, 'Phase 1: Analysis of phosphorus flows through the Australian food production and consumption system', Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures and Institute for Sustainable Futures, Sydney, Australia, pp. 1-57.

Langham, E., Dunstan, C., Cooper, C., Moore, D.D., Mohr, S.H. & Ison, N.M. 2012, 'Decentralised Energy Costs and Opportunities for Victoria', Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, pp. 1-136.
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Mudd, G.M., Giurco, D., Mohr, S.H. & Mason, L.M. 2012, 'Gold resources and production: Australia in a global context', Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and the Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS, Melbourne.

Nguyen, M., Milne, G.R., Rickwood, P., Mohr, S.H. & Turner, A.J. 2012, 'Analysis of data from the ClimateSmart Home Service', Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS, Sydney, Australia.

Rickwood, P., Mohr, S.H., Nguyen, M. & Milne, G.R. 2012, 'Evaluation of the home power savings program - Phase 2', Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS, Sydney, Australia.

Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M. & Giurco, D. 2010, 'Lithium resources and production: A critical global assessment', Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Sydney, pp. 1-107.
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Conference papers

Giurco, D., Mohr, S.H., Fyfe, J., Rickwood, P., Teng, M.L. & Franklin, J. 2013, 'Modelling bounce-back in water consumption post-drought', 5th National Water Efficiency Conference, Sydney, March 2013 in Proceedings of the 5th National Water Efficiency Conference, ed Australian Water Association,, Australian Water Association (AWA), Sydney, pp. 1-5.
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Mohr, S.H. 2012, 'Forecasting fossil fuels', Australian Academy of Science, Australian Frontiers of Science Conference: Science for a Green Economy, Sydney, Australia, December 2012.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2012, 'The future of unconventional oil (slides)', The 10th Annual ASPO Conference:, Vienna, Austria, May 2012.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2012, 'The future of unconventional oil (video)', The 10th Annual APSO Conference, Vienna, Austria, May 2012.
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Journal articles

Giurco, D., Prior, T.D., Mason, L.M., Mohr, S.H. & Mudd, G.M. 2012, 'Life-of-resource sustainability considerations for mining', Australian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 47-56.
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Giurco, D., Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M., Mason, L.M. & Prior, T.D. 2012, 'Resource criticality and commodity production projections', Resources, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 22-33.

Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M. & Giurco, D. 2012, 'Lithium resources and production: Critical assessment and global projections', Minerals, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 65-84.
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Mason, L.M., Mohr, S.H., Zeibots, M.E. & Giurco, D. 2011, 'Limits to cheap oil - impact on mining', The AusIMM Bulletin: Journal of the Australian institute of Mining and Metallurgy, vol. 4, no. August 2011, pp. 40-42.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2011, 'Long term forecasting of natural gas production', Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 9, pp. 5550-5560.
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Mohr, S.H., H+Â+Âk, M., Mudd, G.M. & Evans, G. 2011, 'Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production - Comparison of four models', International Journal of Coal Geology, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 329-341.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2010, 'Combined Generalised Hubbert-Bass model approach to include disruptions when predicting future oil production', Natural Resources, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 28-33.
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Mohr, S.H. & Macdougall, J. 2010, 'Integral trees of diameter 4', AKCE : International journal of graphs and combinatorics, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 171-188.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2010, 'Long term prediction of unconventional oil production', Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 265-276.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2009, 'An Empirical Method to Make Oil Production Models Tolerant to Anomalies', Natural Resources Research, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 1-5.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2009, 'Forecasting coal production until 2100', Fuel, vol. 88, no. 11, pp. 2059-2067.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2008, 'Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via theoretical modelling', Natural Resources Research, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1-11.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2007, 'Mathematical Model Forecasts Year Conventional Oil Will Peak', Oil & Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 17, pp. 45-50.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2007, 'Model Proposed For World Conventional, Unconventional Gas', Oil & Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 47, pp. 46-52.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2007, 'Models Provide Insights On North American Gas Future', Oil & Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 25, pp. 51-55.
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In press

Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M., Mason, L.M., Prior, T.D. & Giurco, D. 2013, 'Coal: Production trends, sustainability issues and future prospects', Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Sydney.
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Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M., Mason, L.M., Giurco, D. 2013, 'Lithium: Production trends, sustainability issues and future prospects', Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and the Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Sydney.
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